This terrific article by James K. Wither is a must-read for everyone concerned with military strategy in the Baltic region. It is published in Small Wars Journal under the title ”Modern Guerrillas” and the Defense of the Baltic States.
The best prospect to deter or if necessary defend an attack on the Baltic States remains armored and mechanized brigades backed up by considerable artillery, air defense, EW and other assets. Currently, NATO lacks the political will to field such a force in the region. The light, armored, NATO conventional forces stationed in the Baltic States would put up a determined, if brief, fight, but would be defeated or brushed aside by numerically superior advancing Russian forces. NATO reinforcements would neither be available nor able to arrive in time to prevent the occupation of territory.
Given this scenario, the Baltic States will have no choice to preserve their independence but to fight a guerrilla war against occupying forces. Regular units, SOF and territorial forces will need to be ready to employ guerrilla tactics from the onset of hostilities, including during any hybrid phase, in order to deny Russian forces a fait accompli.
In addition to an in-depth description of guerrilla warfare in relation to the Baltic States, there is also a levelheaded summary of the Russian military threat.