Romeo Squared

Defense with a Baltic edge

Silo-based nuclear missiles are better than their reputation, and Stanislav Petrov did not save the world

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Pavel Podvig has some interesting points on his blog about the Soviet Union’s nuclear strategy and the value of silo-based missiles. Pavel’s point is that silo-based ICBMs are much more useful than they are typically made out to be:

Silo-based multiple-warhead ICBMs have a consistently bad reputation with the arms control crowd and nuclear hawks alike. We all know the argument – these are highly vulnerable and very lucrative targets that undermine stability in every possible way. Since a single MIRVed missile can potentially destroy several MIRVed missiles of the opposing force, taking out a lot of warheads, the incentives to strike first seem almost irresistible. As does the urge to “use them or lose them” – if I know that the opponent can destroy my entire ICBM force with only of fraction of his own, I better launch my missiles before he has that chance. Silo-based ICBMs are thought to be the worst since they appear to be of no …Continue reading

Some thoughts on HMS Dragon’s FONOPS off Crimea

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Last week, first deputy director of FSB and leader of Russia’s border control service Vladimir Kulishov made some noticeable comments to RIA Novosti about an incident in October 2020 involving the British destroyer HMS Dragon.

The British warship crossed the territorial waters off Crimea in what must be characterized as a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOPS). This fact has been know for some time. In December, deputy minister of defense Alexander Fomin revealed that the British warship had crossed into Russian territorial waters1 off Crimea close to Sevastopol, but he didn’t give much further information.

But according to Kulishov, it was a rather intense encounter between HMS Dragon and units from the Russian coastguard (FSB), navy and air force. As he explained to RIA Novosti:

“On 13 October, the British anti-air destroyer D35 Dragon entered Russian territorial waters close to the tip Khersones in the Black Sea, claiming the right to innocent passage. They did this despite receiving warnings that it would be illegal to enter Russian territorial waters. Upon receiving directions to leave Russian territory immediately, the captain of the destroyer claimed there was a bad radio connection. As a result …Continue reading

The future of the Russian Navy – Last episode of interview with Jonas Kjellén

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Here is the third and last episode in my interview with Jonas Kjellén. Here we discuss the future trends and developments for the Russian Navy.

According to Jonas, the future looks bright for the Russian Navy. They now have lead ships ready for many classes, and in the coming years we will see serial production of these units. This will ensure that the Russian Navy gradually overcomes the shortcomings created by the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the coming years we should therefore expect to see a more harmonious Russian navy that is more active on the world’s oceans, including in the Arctic and the Mediterranean.

US needs a new Arctic security strategy

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David Auerswald in War on the Rocks:

The exercise in March highlighted increased Russian military activity in the Arctic, but that was not the sole Russian signal. U.S. Alaska Command, under U.S. Northern Command, reported that they had intercepted more Russian military aircraft near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone in 2020 than at any other time since the end of the Cold War. In April, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia is trying “to exert control over new spaces. It is modernizing its bases in the Arctic and building new ones.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded by saying, “We hear whining about Russia expanding its military activities in the Arctic. But everyone knows that it’s our territory, our land.”

Russia is not the only authoritarian power with increased interest in Arctic affairs. In January 2018, Chinese officials published their first Arctic strategy document and attempted to buy and greatly expand Finland’s Kemijärvi air base for use by large Chinese aircraft, ostensibly for Arctic research. Their offer was rejected, supposedly because the northern airfield is next to Finland’s Rovajärvi artillery range. This fits a pattern. China has built Arctic research stations, conducted ongoing oceanographic surveys, and attempted infrastructure development across the region, projects that some believe have geostrategic or military purposes.

In order to better position the United States for geopolitical competition in the region, the Biden administration should write and publish a new national security strategy for the Arctic. The United States has a moribund 2013 Arctic strategy that was superseded by events and ignored by the Trump administration. In 2019, the Office of the Secretary of Defense released an Arctic strategy, and the Air Force, Navy and Army each released their own subordinate strategies. However, these individual strategies were not coordinated before being released, did not fully integrate efforts with civilian foreign policy agencies, and in some cases were produced only because of pressure from Sen. Dan Sullivan from Alaska.

This is true. The myriad of Arctic strategies that the United States has mainly signal that the issue is new on the agenda. A new comprehensive strategy for the Arctic would give a much more mature impression.

The history of Danish gendarmerie forces

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Rasmus Dahlberg and Henrik Stevnsborg have an interesting look at the history of Danish gendarmerie forces in Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies:

Since 1952, Denmark has had no border gendarmes, and since 1894, gendarmes have not patrolled the territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. The ghost of the gendarmes, however, has kept on haunting Danish police history.
[…]
In November 2019, the Secretary General of the Danish Atlantic Council, Lars Bangert Struwe (2019), advocated for the establishment of a Danish gendarmerie force. He referred to the fact that since 2015 the Home Guard (which is part of the Armed Forces), as a means to curb the migration flow, has assisted the police in protecting the Danish-German border. He likewise referred to the fact that due to the terrorist attacks in Copenhagen …Continue reading

The sorry state of collective European defense capabilities

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Robert Dalsjö and Michael Jonsson in a great piece in War on the Rocks on the state of NATO and Europe’s ability to defend itself:

This has led to at least two lively debates, one on just how deficient NATO’s defenses against Russia are, and the other on how to respond to the threat of American withdrawal. In the latter debate, which at times has been acrimonious, French President Emmanuel Macron and other voices from Europe’s south have called for a reduced dependence on the Unites States and for more European “strategic autonomy,” whereas Atlanticist voices (often from the east and north) instead have argued for revitalizing NATO and improving burden-sharing by rebuilding European military capabilities, while a third group of allies seems to hope that the whole thing will pass and things will go back to normal.

As a Dane at least it’s easy to see what group you belong to.

The article is written on the basis of this report that FOI released in March.

The risks of outsourcing merchant shipping to foreign owners

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Sal Mercogliano has a thoughtful look in CIMSEC on the grounding of MV Ever Given that blocked the Suez Canal for six days:

Today, international corporations, with ships flying the flags of open registries, dominate the world’s oceans but with little means of protection. This is readily apparent to the Indian crew, onboard the Taiwan-based Evergreen vessel, managed by a German firm, with an American classification society, owned by a Japanese company, with insurance in Great Britain, and trapped in Egyptian waters. That is the situation facing world trade and maritime infrastructure today that is largely absent from most military and naval discussions but essential to the world’s economy and the military’s logistics. Failure to invest in domestic infrastructure and trade will place nations at the mercy of forces beyond their control. While that may be sufficient for many nations, any country wishing to be considered a sea power should heed the words of Mahan, as recently recapped by Andrew Lambert in “What is a Navy For?” and consider, “What is a Merchant Marine For?”

The article also contains a fascinating account of the history of container ships. It’s just incredible how big they have grown and how quickly.

Decarbonization raises capacity questions for shipbuilding and wartime repairs

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Benjamin Clark discusses in CIMSEC How the Decarbonization Dilemma Will Impact Shipbuilding and Great Power Competition:

A decline in shipbuilding capacity is a clear and troubling trend, especially for those working in the U.S. maritime industry, and it is critical to assess the challenges this decline creates for the country’s ability to wage a protracted maritime war. It may not be possible in a crisis situation to execute a rapid ramp-up of shipbuilding capacity to support military operations.

Planned decarbonization could put this possibility out of reach, because industries relying on traditional fossil fuel sources will feature greater reliability and output compared to industries undergoing an uneven transition toward more novel renewable energy sources.

This is not an anti-renewable energy piece, but it does raise an important warning mark as the shipbuilding industry makes this transition.