The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
Military strategy and politics
Rumors of imminent Russian attacks on Ukraine are usually wrong
Rumors that Russia would attack Ukraine during Christmas turned out to be false. That was predictable. If Russia wants to attack Ukraine, they are strong enough to do it whenever they want. They don’t need to check the Western holiday calendar. An escalation in January seems more likely.
Sanctions are a tool of reward, not of punishment
It is doubtful that Western sanctions have had any effect on Russia’s behavior but that doesn’t mean that the sanctions don’t work. They will be good bargaining chips some day when things are less emotional.
We should think about why Russia breaks the INF Treaty
Before the INF Treaty collapses, it is worth pondering why Russia is building a missile that breaks it. I argue that it is because they want a conventional missile akin to Tomahawk. It is silly if we turn this into a nuclear race.
We need better IR theories to explain Russia
Traditional theories about International Relations are simply not good enough to explain what is going on between Russia and the West. Andrej Krickovic delivers the argument in this policy memo for PONARS Eurasia.
Russia is not on the verge of apocalypse
The notion that Russia is about to collapse is way too common in Western discourse. Mark Galeotti reacts against this trend in an almost entertainingly scathing review of one such apocalyptic article.
Michael Kofman sums up Vostok 2018
Nowhere near 300,000 soldiers took part in the exercise, but it was still interesting. Not least for its focus on a free-play scenario instead of the usual rehearsal of predefined maneuvers.
Europe hopes for status quo but must prepare for NATO without U.S.
Interesting and pessimistic take on the future of NATO by Sten Rynning in War on the Rocks: In this short essay, I argue that NATO is actually witnessing a return of European geopolitics that runs in parallel to the questioning of geopolitical priorities occurring in the United States. European allies clearly prefer continuity when it […]
Exposure of GRU spy in Estonian Army is a blow to integration of Russians
Army major Deniss Metsavas was a role model for successful integration of Russians in Estonia. He appeared on TV several times posing as a patriotic Estonian. But now he has been exposed as a GRU spy, and suspicion against the Russian minority has soared.
Rosgvardiya general challenges Alexei Navalny to duel in mindless video rant
Rosgvardiya general Viktor Zolotov challenges Alexei Navalny to a fist fight in a disastrous public video address. It is discomforting that this guy is in charge of the internal security forces in Russia. Zolotov is also Putin’s old-time friend and former bodyguard.
