Sam Greene on his blog: By the summer of 2019, it should have been clear that this prediction was wrong. The Kremlin ramped up arrests and street violence (albeit not to American levels on the latter count), culminating in the arrest of some 11,000 people in January 2021. Since then, they have moved to bar […]
Military strategy and politics
Russia challenges international law with Black Sea prohibition zones
Analysis of Russia’s decision to close three zones in the Black Sea for foreign warships including the Kerch Strait.
Interview with Corporal Frisk about military reductions in UK
Corporal Frisk’s look at the UK’s new “Defence in a competitive age” plan for the armed forces.
Clausewitz may help us understand why forever wars take forever
David Betz has written an article in Military Strategy Magazine titled In Search of a Point: The Blob at War on the importance of Clausewitz in modern war theory: [Consider] that the greatest military power in the world today has not won a war in seventy-five years. So accustomed now is the world to this […]
Armenia’s over-confidence and the catastrophic defeat in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War
Great article by Michael A. Reynolds for War on the Rocks about Armenia’s painful defeat in the recent war with Azerbaijan: This second conflict came as no surprise. With peace talks stalled, Azerbaijan had, for over a decade, been threatening war and ostentatiously arming for one. Nor was the war’s outcome any surprise. The bigger […]
Russia is up to something: Probably about Belarus
The many incidents with the Russian military over the last few weeks are not a coincidence. It looks like a prelude to intervention in Belarus.
A look at the Baltic Fleet and the defense of Kaliningrad
Kaliningrad is a military stronghold in the Baltic Sea. It is also an interesting case of Russia’s joint approach to defense under the leadership of the Baltic Fleet. Here is a quick overview.
Sergey Shoigu has famous pro-Kremlin journalist fired over critical article
Defense analyst Ilya Kramnik has been fired from Izvestia for publishing a critical analysis of an interview with defense minister Sergey Shoigu. Kramnik particularly addressed Shoigu’s inclination to taking credit for other people’s achievements and the propagandized nature of the Defense Ministry’s PR-practices under Shoigu.
Militarization in the Baltic and the Arctic compared: The Arctic is the dangerous place
The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
Rumors of imminent Russian attacks on Ukraine are usually wrong
Rumors that Russia would attack Ukraine during Christmas turned out to be false. That was predictable. If Russia wants to attack Ukraine, they are strong enough to do it whenever they want. They don’t need to check the Western holiday calendar. An escalation in January seems more likely.