Professor Kimberly Marten tries to explain an apparently schizophrenic Russian foreign policy toward the United States in this policy memo on PONARS Eurasia. She comes up with four possible explanations: Putin succumbed to his own ignorance and biases. Putin’s advisors are afraid to tell him the truth. Inconsistent foreign policy is the result of infighting […]
Military strategy and politics
How should the United States and NATO prioritize their resources to the Baltic States? That is the topic of this policy paper that Erik Marmei and Gabriel White have written for ICDS. The policy paper outlines a series of weaknesses with the defense in the Baltic States. It is pointed out that despite the fact […]
One of the things that I didn’t touch on in my description about how a war between Russia and the West will play out was the resistance that the populations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would muster after a Russian occupation. That was a deliberate omission because you just can’t fit everything into one piece, […]
Michael Kimmage for War on the Rocks in connection with the American decision to provide anti-tank missiles to Ukraine: Both sides interpret their own actions as defensive. The greater the need to defend from the other’s aggression, the more an expansion of military assets makes sense — hence, the provision of “defensive lethal weapons.” Hence, […]
Sébastien Roblin for War on the Rocks in connection with the American decision to provide Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine: Michael Kofman, an analyst with extensive knowledge of Russian military affairs, was skeptical that a “few missiles” would be of any serious military benefit in a New York Times column in August. He wrote that […]
There is a specific military scenario connected with the possibility of a war between Russia and the West in the Baltic area. This summary explains how the war can develop from a limited insurgency to a nuclear exchange.
Mikhail Barabanov in Moscow Defense Brief: Russia holds the Zapad drills along its western borders once every four years; the previous such event took place in 2013. This year, however, the reaction from some of Russia’s neighbors to the west has been nothing short of hysterical. […] For all the Western concerns, the scenario of […]
Sébastien Roblin for The National Interest in a piece called Germany Does Not Have One Working Submarine: One unfortunate consequence is that the submarine crews are completely unable to gain badly needed operational experience. Only by mid-2018 will three German submarines be operational, followed by possibly a fourth that November. But the kicker is that […]
In connection with Zapad 2017, Russia said that the exercise was about training defensive maneuvers. BILD has an article that claims otherwise: However, BILD recently spoke to two leading analysts from a western intelligence service who revealed that Zapad 2017 was neither an “anti-terror exercise” nor “purely defensive”, but a “dry run” for a “full-scale […]
Natalia Wojtowicz suggests that Poland can play leading role in connecting regional security initiatives to make EU and NATO strategies more coherent.