The many incidents with the Russian military over the last few weeks are not a coincidence. It looks like a prelude to intervention in Belarus.
It is time to let go of the idea of impenetrable A2/AD bubbles. Russia does not have the technical capabilities to do it, and politically it is hard to see why they would even want to. We need to start thinking about Russia’s missiles as a layered defense system instead. That is the point of this conference paper.
The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
The British Air Vice-Marshal Simon Rochelle has some dramatic assumptions about the usability of NATO aircraft in future peer-level wars. But a new FOI report calls for more cool-headed estimates of Russia’s air defense weapons.
Before the INF Treaty collapses, it is worth pondering why Russia is building a missile that breaks it. I argue that it is because they want a conventional missile akin to Tomahawk. It is silly if we turn this into a nuclear race.
Traditional theories about International Relations are simply not good enough to explain what is going on between Russia and the West. Andrej Krickovic delivers the argument in this policy memo for PONARS Eurasia.
Interesting and pessimistic take on the future of NATO by Sten Rynning in War on the Rocks: In this short essay, I argue that NATO is actually witnessing a return of European geopolitics that runs in parallel to the questioning of geopolitical priorities occurring in the United States. European allies clearly prefer continuity when it […]
Army major Deniss Metsavas was a role model for successful integration of Russians in Estonia. He appeared on TV several times posing as a patriotic Estonian. But now he has been exposed as a GRU spy, and suspicion against the Russian minority has soared.
Nikolas Gvosdev argues in War on the Rocks that Russia’s build-up in the Black Sea Basin is more concerning than in the Baltic Area. This leads me to reflect on the differences. The Black Sea area is more contested, and there is no united deterrence against Russia. But that does not mean that there is room for complacency in the Baltic region.
An often used reference to the GDP of Spain says nothing about Russia’s military potential. Instead, Russia’s defense budget gives them the same purchasing power as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom combined.