Nicu Popescu has written a great article for Carnegie Moscow Center about the future relationship between Russia and Ukraine.

“Those in Moscow who believe that all is not lost for Russia in Ukraine, citing the example of Georgia, which is gradually normalizing relations with Russia despite the 2008 war, are being overly optimistic. While the current animosity in Russian-Ukrainian relations will almost certainly cool down in a few years, the underlying foundation of that relationship has been fundamentally altered. Most crucially, Ukraine’s economic dependence on Russia has been decreasing — and with it, Russian leverage over its neighbor.”

This is an interesting point. The important thing is not how the conflict is hurting Russia’s economy, but how it is changing Ukraine’s.