Not according to Paul Poast and Dan Reiter. In this article in War on the Rocks titled Death without deterrence, or why tripwire forces are not enough they argue that nobody is deterred by a militarily insignificant body of soldiers whose only job it is to die. Though tripwire forces offer little deterrence power, larger […]
USA
Russian submarines are dangerous, says U.S. general
Joseph Trevithich writing for The Drive: A senior U.S. military officer has again sounded the alarm about the threat that advanced, very-quiet, cruise-missile-armed Russian submarines, as well as Chinese ones, increasingly present to the United States. At a hearing on Capitol Hill yesterday, U.S. Air Force General Glen VanHerck, who is head of U.S. Northern Command […]
Silo-based nuclear missiles are better than their reputation, and Stanislav Petrov did not save the world
Pavel Podvig has some interesting points on his blog about the Soviet Union’s nuclear strategy and the value of silo-based missiles. Pavel’s point is that silo-based ICBMs are much more useful than they are typically made out to be: Silo-based multiple-warhead ICBMs have a consistently bad reputation with the arms control crowd and nuclear hawks […]
US needs a new Arctic security strategy
David Auerswald in War on the Rocks: The exercise in March highlighted increased Russian military activity in the Arctic, but that was not the sole Russian signal. U.S. Alaska Command, under U.S. Northern Command, reported that they had intercepted more Russian military aircraft near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone in 2020 than at any […]
Russia is up to something: Probably about Belarus
The many incidents with the Russian military over the last few weeks are not a coincidence. It looks like a prelude to intervention in Belarus.
Militarization in the Baltic and the Arctic compared: The Arctic is the dangerous place
The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
US European forces chief wants more presence, Trump pushes for allies to pay
US general pushes for more warships in Europe to maintain American dominance. Trump wants allies to pay a premium for hosting US forces. The incompatibility between these two views is striking.
Debate over USS Fitzgerald collision still misses point about broken US Navy procedures
The debate about the USS Fitzgerald accident is still off track. The interesting discussion is what to do about the fact that the US Navy has deficient navigation procedures.
Russian speaking U.S. soldiers on exercise in Estonia is brilliant information work
A television performance by two U.S. soldiers has achieved remarkable strategic effect. In fluent Russian they explain what the American soldiers are doing during an exercise in Estonia. It sends the right message to both the Russian minorities in the Baltic countries and to Russia as a potential enemy.
Sanctions are a tool of reward, not of punishment
It is doubtful that Western sanctions have had any effect on Russia’s behavior but that doesn’t mean that the sanctions don’t work. They will be good bargaining chips some day when things are less emotional.