I wrote he naval chapter in this book on Russia’s military capabilities, where the English version is now available as a free download.
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HMS Defender’s encounter with Russia’s coastguard off Crimea
Here are a few quick thoughts on yesterday’s incident where Russian ships and aircraft fired warning shots on the British destroyer HMS Defender off Crimea. This was a deliberate freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) by the Royal Navy. HMS Defender purposefully transited closer than 12 nautical miles from Crimea. This point is important to stress […]
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Silo-based nuclear missiles are better than their reputation, and Stanislav Petrov did not save the world
Pavel Podvig has some interesting points on his blog about the Soviet Union’s nuclear strategy and the value of silo-based missiles. Pavel’s point is that silo-based ICBMs are much more useful than they are typically made out to be: Silo-based multiple-warhead ICBMs have a consistently bad reputation with the arms control crowd and nuclear hawks […]
Some thoughts on HMS Dragon’s FONOPS off Crimea
Last week, first deputy director of FSB and leader of Russia’s border control service Vladimir Kulishov made some noticeable comments to RIA Novosti about an incident in October 2020 involving the British destroyer HMS Dragon. The British warship crossed the territorial waters off Crimea in what must be characterized as a Freedom of Navigation Operation […]
Russia challenges international law with Black Sea prohibition zones
Analysis of Russia’s decision to close three zones in the Black Sea for foreign warships including the Kerch Strait.
Why Small Navies Prefer Warfighting over Counter-Piracy
Small navies face hard choices when forced to prioritize between tasks. This article uses Denmark’s counter-piracy effort in 2008-15 as a lens into the problem.
A look at the Baltic Fleet and the defense of Kaliningrad
Kaliningrad is a military stronghold in the Baltic Sea. It is also an interesting case of Russia’s joint approach to defense under the leadership of the Baltic Fleet. Here is a quick overview.
Russia’s A2/AD strategy is a myth
It is time to let go of the idea of impenetrable A2/AD bubbles. Russia does not have the technical capabilities to do it, and politically it is hard to see why they would even want to. We need to start thinking about Russia’s missiles as a layered defense system instead. That is the point of this conference paper.
Militarization in the Baltic and the Arctic compared: The Arctic is the dangerous place
The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
Why does Russia break the INF Treaty?
Before the INF Treaty collapses, it is worth pondering why Russia is building a missile that breaks it. I argue that it is because they want a conventional missile akin to Tomahawk. It is silly if we turn this into a nuclear race.