It is time to let go of the idea of impenetrable A2/AD bubbles. Russia does not have the technical capabilities to do it, and politically it is hard to see why they would even want to. We need to start thinking about Russia’s missiles as a layered defense system instead. That is the point of this conference paper.
Starred
Militarization in the Baltic and the Arctic compared: The Arctic is the dangerous place
The Arctic will not be a peaceful exception in a militarized world. In this post I compare the security situation in the Baltic and the Arctic. Both regions are militarized these days, but in very different ways. The most dangerous dynamics are in the Arctic, and it will get worse in the coming years.
Update on Russia’s weapon development programs
Russia has some impressive new weapons under development, but many of the projects have been struck by problems and delays. Here is an overview of how things are going with the most spectacular programs.
Russia gets dedicated mobile network for military personnel
Russia’s new phone operator “Voentelekom” specializes in cellular connections for the military. This allows more secure mobile connections but also tighter surveillance of their own employees.
New ships to expect for Russia’s navy in 2019
Here is a list of 11 new warships for Russia’s navy in 2019. It includes some large submarines and a new frigate.
Russia has found money to repair the flagship of the Baltic Fleet
The destroyer “Nastoichivy” is now set to re-enter service after many years in inoperable condition. It is a Sovremenny-class ship which is known to have an unreliable propulsion system.
Russia develops bigger Kalibr missiles and Gorshkov-class frigates
A bunch of frigate related news out of Russia. They want more Gorshkov-class frigates, increase the number of missile launchers, develop a larger frigate design, and build a bigger version of Kalibr missiles.
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Rumors of imminent Russian attacks on Ukraine are usually wrong
Rumors that Russia would attack Ukraine during Christmas turned out to be false. That was predictable. If Russia wants to attack Ukraine, they are strong enough to do it whenever they want. They don’t need to check the Western holiday calendar. An escalation in January seems more likely.
Russian speaking U.S. soldiers on exercise in Estonia is brilliant information work
A television performance by two U.S. soldiers has achieved remarkable strategic effect. In fluent Russian they explain what the American soldiers are doing during an exercise in Estonia. It sends the right message to both the Russian minorities in the Baltic countries and to Russia as a potential enemy.
Assessment of the radio traffic before “Helge Ingstad” collided and sank
A few comments on the radio traffic before the Norwegian frigate “Helge Ingstad” and the tanker “Sola TS” collided, and the warship sank. This recording will go over in history as an example of how not to avoid an accident.